Virginians enter the holiday season with confidence essentially unchanged from last quarter. As in August, the commonwealth continues to outpace national sentiment, supported by a resilient labor market and stable job openings. Nationally, strong GDP growth and real wage gains provide a favorable backdrop, even as structural challenges, such as skill mismatches, temper optimism for some groups.
Virginia’s consumer sentiment is 65.8 in November 2025, essentially unchanged from the last reading in August 2025, and remains above the final November national reading of 51.0. This stability, although still five points off the five-year average, suggests Virginia’s households feel relatively confident about current conditions and the near-term outlook.
The U.S. economy grew at an estimated 3.5% in the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model, which is in line with second-quarter growth. Additionally, wage growth (4.2%) outpaced inflation (2.9%) in the third quarter, providing real income gains to support consumer spending. The labor market remained resilient. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% in September. However, this was primarily due to increases in the labor force participation rate, signaling that more people are entering the labor market.
Sentiment is buoyed by improving household finances and resilient wage growth. Nearly 23% of Virginia respondents report that their financial situation is better today than it was a year ago, and 39% say it’s a good time to purchase large, durable goods. The Virginia Index of Current Conditions is 64.2, statistically unchanged since last quarter.
Virginia’s economy is strong and likely contributes to the stabilization in sentiment. Job openings have stabilized, with an average of 220,000 openings reported over the last three months of data. Virginia’s unemployment rate stands at 3.6%, notably lower than the national rate. Even as expectations about the coming years remain subdued, Virginia’s relatively robust labor market helps sustain a more positive sentiment than seen nationally. The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations is 66.8, up three points since August 2025.
Inflation remains a top concern in Virginia, although it is subsiding. Nationally, the Consumer Price Index shows a 3.0% annual increase in prices (September 2024-September 2025). Fifty-eight percent of respondents believe prices will rise over the next year, down seven points from August, but 11 points higher than in November 2024. The recent Virginia Holiday Spending Report indicated that consumers planned to spend 5% less this year than last due to price strains.
Analysis
“Virginia’s steady sentiment alongside strong national GDP growth and real wage gains suggests households feel better positioned than earlier in the year,” said Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, senior analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and dean of Roanoke College’s School of Business, Economics, and Analytics.
“The uptick in labor force participation nationally is encouraging, and Virginia’s stable job openings reinforce local optimism. At the same time, structural challenges, such as skill gaps, fewer entry-level roles, and sectoral shifts toward high-skill industries, continue to temper enthusiasm. These trends disproportionately affect younger workers and those in transitioning sectors, even as overall conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, holiday spending will provide an important gauge of consumer confidence, and we’ll be monitoring whether wage gains and job stability translate into sustained optimism as we move into 2026.”
– Conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College
