Trust in Virginia rebounded in 2025, returning close to its longtime baseline after years of pandemic-driven volatility. The Virginia Trust Index averaged 98.7 for the year, signaling stability and confidence among Virginians even as household economic sentiment softened.
This report examines developments in 2025, why trust matters for civic and economic resilience, and how trust compares with other indicators, such as consumer sentiment and unemployment. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College conducted quarterly polls of Virginians to measure their level of trust in others.
Trust in Virginia rebounded in 2025 and settled near its long-run baseline after several years of volatility. The Virginia Trust Index averaged 98.7 for the year, up more than five points from 2024, and quarterly readings hovered around 99, signaling stability. This marks a sharp contrast to the pandemic surge in 2020, when trust spiked to historic highs, and the subsequent decline through mid-2023. By 2025, trust appears to have re-anchored, even as household economic sentiment softened.
Why is social trust important?
Social trust, the belief that others are fair, helpful and trustworthy, is more than a feel-good metric. Research consistently shows that higher trust reduces friction in everyday transactions, strengthens democratic institutions and supports economic growth. When trust erodes, polarization deepens, compromise becomes more difficult and productivity declines. In Virginia, the return to near-baseline trust suggests communities are regaining confidence in one another, a positive sign for civic and economic resilience.
The story becomes even more interesting when compared to consumer sentiment. While trust stabilized, household economic sentiment fell in 2025, reflecting caution about prices and the economic outlook. This divergence highlights that trust and sentiment are not interchangeable. Sentiment responds quickly to visible costs, especially gas and food, whereas trust reflects deeper social norms that change more slowly. When we examined the data, trust remained an important signal even after accounting for unemployment and price changes. In fact, the strongest downward pressure on sentiment came from rising gas prices, while trust held steady, reinforcing that social cohesion is not simply a byproduct of short-term economic conditions.
Looking at the components of trust, November 2025 survey responses show that about half of Virginians believe most people try to be fair or helpful, but only about one third say most people can be trusted. This gap, which is the norm in Virginia, mirrors national patterns and underscores that generalized trust, the broad confidence in strangers, remains harder to build and maintain than confidence in fairness or helpfulness.
Analysis
“Building and maintaining trust pays dividends,” said Dr. Alice Kassens, senior analyst at IPOR. “Communities with higher trust experience lower transaction costs, more efficient governance and greater resilience during crises. As Virginia navigates future business cycles, maintaining trust near or above its baseline should be a pragmatic goal for policymakers, businesses and civic leaders. While prices and economic sentiment will continue to fluctuate, trust offers a stabilizing force that supports cooperation and long-term growth.”
-Conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College
