Roanoke College Poll
Consumer sentiment in Virginia improved in February 2026, continuing the gradual recovery that began in late 2024. All three components of the Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment — current conditions, consumer expectations, and overall sentiment — recorded increases relative to November 2025. The most notable change occurred in the Index of Consumer Expectations, which rose from 66.8 to 69.3, its largest single-period gain in more than a year.
Virginia’s sentiment levels also continue to exceed national benchmarks.
The U.S. economy grew at an estimated 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNow model, is currently growing at 3.1% [i]. Additionally, wage growth (3.7%) continues to outpace inflation (2.4%) at the start of 2026, providing real income gains to support consumer spending, which was up 2.4% at the end of 2025. Nationally, the labor market has softened. There is fewer than one job opening (labor demand) for every unemployed person (labor supply), although the unemployment rate remains low (4.3%). In comparison, the Virginia labor market is tighter, with 1.3 job openings for every unemployed person and an unemployment rate of 3.6%.
Sentiment is buoyed by a strong economy, improving household finances, and resilient wage growth. Twenty-four percent of respondents report that their financial situation is better today than it was a year ago, and 38% say it’s a good time to purchase large, durable goods. The Virginia Index of Current Conditions is 64.7, up half a point since the end of 2025.
The largest gains in sentiment come from expectations. The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations is currently 69.3, up 2.5 since the end of 2025. Close to one-third of Virginians believe their household finances will improve over the year, and 41% believe that the next five years will bear strong economic growth. Ebbing prices, especially for common purchases like gasoline, are softening the pressures on household wallets and permitting them to look ahead. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 2.4%, down from 3.0% one year ago.
Analysis
“The February readings suggest that Virginia households are becoming more optimistic about the year ahead,” said Alice Kassens, senior analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and dean of Roanoke College’s School of Business, Economics, and Analytics. “The rise in expectations, now the strongest driver of overall sentiment, indicates that consumers see a positive trajectory of the economy, supported by moderating inflation, solid wage gains, and a tightening state labor market. The improvement comes as Virginia’s newly inaugurated governor begins rolling out early legislative actions and policy priorities. Combined with steady statewide labor market conditions and easing inflationary pressure, these political and economic developments appear to have bolstered consumers’ outlooks for the coming year.”
“Virginia’s sentiment levels also continue to exceed national readings, reflecting the commonwealth’s resilient employment base and relatively stable household finances. While these results point to strengthening consumer conditions heading into the spring, sentiment remains well below pre pandemic highs, and households still face elevated prices for many essentials. Overall, the February results point to steady, broad based strength in the commonwealth’s economy, with improving expectations suggesting that households see current momentum carrying into the coming months.”
– Conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College
